RE: Looking at the stats...

Karl J. Runge (runge@redhook.llnl.gov)
Sat, 12 Apr 97 14:00:57 PDT


On Sat, 12 Apr 1997, Jensen Harris <jensen.harris@yale.edu> wrote:
>
> I think the numbers are very, very interesting. We shall see, I guess...

The interesting thing is with the BIG increases over the last couple
days, 13% two days ago and 27% yesterday, the key rate is now really
showing the upward curvature of the exponential growth we want! A few
days ago it was hard to argue it wasn't linear, but the upward bend is
pretty evident now. In the least squares fit, exponential growth fits
the curve *very* well, straight line, not so well.

Anyway, fitting to exponential growth over the last 20 days suggests
87 total days to to half the keyspace and 96 to full coverage, with
the number of hosts 140,000 at 1/2 and 280,000 at end of keyspace.
(we have about 2,000 now)

It would be very impressive if we had this many hosts at the end.
An interesting display of the power of the internet!

The conservative linear growth estimate shows 241 days to 1/2 and 339
days to end of keyspace with 16,000 and 23,000 hosts respectively. This
seems pretty doable: an upper bound to how long we have to wait.

But I must remember extrapolating from current 0.5% of keyspace to 50%
of keyspace is quite a stretch, but it will be fun to see what happens.

Keep spreading the word!

Karl

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Karl J. Runge -- Linux: it's the Real thing -- runge@crl.com
-- http://www.crl.com/~runge
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