Re: Growth rate

Colin L. Hildinger (colin@ionet.net)
Thu, 24 Apr 97 12:29:09 -0500


On Thu, 24 Apr 1997 10:30:21 -0500 (EST), Michael J Gebis wrote:

>> >A calculation I have worked out in a notebook but not coded up to get the
>> >numbers for is computing (ave_time_uncoordinated/ave_time_coordinated)
>> >not assuming a constant key rate, but instead a rapidly growing one.
>> >We've had exponential growth with doubling time of 7-8 days for well
>> >over a month now, I hope it lasts a good while longer.
>>
>> This is a feasible calc. but, from looking at the graphs I'd say that we
>> may have linear growth instead of exponential growth. Though I could be
>> incorrect...:)

>For the first half of the curve, the growth looks exponential. I fear
>that we have passed this point, and are nearing the linear part of the
>curve. For example, the "doubles every week" rule of thumb hasn't held for
>the past few days.

I'm guessing that it has to do with the weekend ending and the bad data
point on Monday. If you look back historically, there have always been
dropoffs after the weekends, so the current data doesn't supprise me.
The test will be if we break ~100000000000000 keys this Friday or
Saturday, then we'll know growth is continuing as scheduled.

Colin L. Hildinger

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Colin L. Hildinger

Games Editor - OS/2 e-Zine!
http://www.os2ezine.com/

The Ultimate OS/2 Gaming Page
http://www.ionet.net/~colin/games.html

The Official Unofficial AWE32 and OS/2 Warp Page
http://www.ionet.net/~colin/awe32.html