Re: Key rate...

Andy Church (
Fri, 16 May 1997 16:09:34 EDT

>> 05/15/97 285985589952512 4997492257062912 16 weeks
>> goal 72057594037927936 ( 6.935% done)
>> Wow! By my math, we topped 3.3 Billion keys/sec yesterday!
>Cool! One statistic I think would be interesting to see is the probability
>of finding the key in the next 24 hours. By my reckoning, this figure
>currently stands at about 0.4%.

A bit better than that, actually, since we already know that the key
isn't one of the 5*10^15 keys that have already been checked:

285985589952512 / (72057594037927936 - 4997492257062912) ~= 0.00426

or 0.426%. Which could be called "about 0.4%", I'll grant you, but let's
be optimistic. (: And, of course, this is based on the current key-search
rate; let's add in a mean growth of about 1.1*10^13 keys per day (the
average over the past week):

296976375311799 / (72057594037927936 - 4997492257062912) ~= 0.00442

and we bump the chance up to 0.442%.

This would indeed be a neat statistic to add to that page; whoever
handles the stats, are you up for it?

>Another one would be attached to each domain and would indicate the probability
>that the given domain will eventually find the key, based upon current
>rates and assuming rates stay the same.

Gee, that's easy for me. Zero, because I never get that lucky. ;)

--Andy Church | If Bell Atlantic really is the heart | of communication, then it desperately | needs a quadruple bypass.