Expected date of solution

Rocke Verser (rcv@dopey.verser.frii.com)
Sun, 8 Jun 1997 11:24:54 -0600


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RSA DES Challenge Time-Of-Completion estimate - 06/08/97
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Introduction / Assumptions / Notes / Other Observations:

Please refer to my posting, dated 06/06/97, for more information.

Factual data:

Recent DESCHALL keyrate: 5.185 billion keys per second
Recent SolNet keyrate: 2.386 billion keys per second
Recent SGI keyrate: ~2.890 billion keys per second

DESCHALL keyspace complete: 17.653%
Solnet keyspace complete: 10.6595%
SGI keyspace complete: ~20.266%

Results, assuming constant keyrates, and no cooperation:

Expected date of solution: 47 days from now.

Probability that a DESCHALL client will find the key: 58%
Probability that a SolNet client will find the key: 17%
Probability that an SGI client will find the key: 25%

- -- Rocke Verser
- -- PGP Fingerprint PGP ID = 1025/00000001
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