Expected date of solution

Rocke Verser (rcv@dopey.verser.frii.com)
Wed, 11 Jun 1997 03:15:01 -0600


RSA DES Challenge Time-Of-Completion estimate - 06/11/97
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Introduction / Assumptions / Notes / Other Observations:

Please refer to my posting, dated 06/06/97, for more information.

Factual data:

Recent DESCHALL keyrate: 5.316 billion keys per second
Recent SolNet keyrate: 2.282 billion keys per second
Last known SGI keyrate: ~2.890 billion keys per second

DESCHALL keyspace complete: 19.555%
Solnet keyspace complete: 11.3960%
SGI keyspace complete: ~21.306%

Results, assuming constant keyrates, and no cooperation:

Expected date of solution: 46 days from now.

Probability that a DESCHALL client will find the key: 60%
Probability that a SolNet client will find the key: 16%
Probability that an SGI client will find the key: 24%

The probability that you or your site will find the key:

Figure out your site's aggregate keyrate, in billions of keys per
second (GKPS), and multiply by the following figures. [These figures
assume no growth. As the total worldwide keyrate increases, the
probability per GKPS will tend to decrease.]

Probability per GKPS that a DESCHALL site will find the key: 11.3%
Probability per GKPS that a SolNet site will find the key: 7.0%
Probability per GKPS that an SGI site will find the key: 8.4%

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