Expected date of solution

Rocke Verser (rcv@dopey.verser.frii.com)
Sun, 15 Jun 1997 19:48:45 -0600


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RSA DES Challenge Time-Of-Completion estimate - 06/15/97
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Introduction / Assumptions / Notes / Other Observations:

Please refer to my posting, dated 06/06/97, for more information.

Factual data:

Recent DESCHALL keyrate: 6.692 billion keys per second
Recent SolNet keyrate: 2.6 billion keys per second
Last known SGI keyrate: ~2.890 billion keys per second

DESCHALL keyspace complete: 22.260%
Solnet keyspace complete: 12.5578%
SGI keyspace complete: ~23.038%

Results, assuming constant keyrates, and no cooperation:

Expected date of solution: 37 days from now.

Probability that a DESCHALL client will find the key: 66%
Probability that a SolNet client will find the key: 15%
Probability that an SGI client will find the key: 19%

The probability that you or your site will find the key:

Figure out your site's aggregate keyrate, in billions of keys per
second (GKPS), and multiply by the following figures. [These figures
assume no growth. As the total worldwide keyrate increases, the
probability per GKPS will tend to decrease.]

Probability per GKPS that a DESCHALL site will find the key: 9.8%
Probability per GKPS that a SolNet site will find the key: 5.7%
Probability per GKPS that an SGI site will find the key: 6.7%

- -- Rocke Verser
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